Looking
Through the Window
Narrative on Global Change
This
is a WindowView perspective on signs for our times!
Narrative
Introduction |
What characterizes change in our world today? What is the direction of this human-centered activity? This narrative provides a brief overview for a number of components to change. It's not just the climate ... the entire planet is being strained by a variety of driving forces that make for change. Scientists have declared their concerns and done so in terms that describe real threats to earth's life systems. In a word the present trend is one of Decline. The environment, biodiversity, earth's resources (fisheries, water, soil, oil, coal), and more are all in decline. Read here to get the scope and magnitude of all this in context with your daily life. And WHAT are the implications for the future?
Main
Narrative on Global Change |
Exploring
issues on change can be overwhelming, but necessary if we are to understand
the prospects for future generations.
The links here and in the following narrative bring up articles on the right which are from different source materials. One source used here is the writings of Mr. Ayers of Worldwatch Institute, who writes about global change in context with four megaphenomena that are reveal rapid change in relation to carbon emissions, rapid extinction of species, increasing rates of consumption and mounting global human population. Other sources we use come from academics, a scientific forum on global change, and examples from television programming.
Today humanity is changing the face of the planet. Farms are lost to urban sprawl and water and soil resources are lost to abuse and a lack of true stewardship. The following verse from Scripture is taken out of context, but also, as presented is forward looking and anticipates a consequence to human activity ... in terms remarkably appropriate to what is happening today:
''Woe to those who join house to house; They add field to field, Till there is no place Where they may dwell alone in the midst of the land!'' (Isaiah 5:8)
Another clue to getting the larger picture can be expressed in another quote from the biblical text:
He answered and said to them, "When it is evening
you say, `It will be fair weather, for the sky is red';
"and in the morning, `It will be foul weather today, for the sky is red
and threatening.' Hypocrites! You know how to discern the face of the sky, but
you cannot discern the signs of the times. (Mattityahu 16:2-3)
Can we discern what is happening now to anticipate events or consequences tomorrow?
The scientific community is concerned about the complacency they sense in the global community. While there is much reported on change, governments discussing the issues, and science enterprises tendering potential solutions ... is this enough to scale the dimensions of change and the current global trend toward continued decline?
In the late 1980s and into the 1990s there was a growing concern for the signs of global change in the world. The entire mix of changes seems untamed and uncontrollable. As noted at the end of the introduction at the right, Dr. Malone suggested in 1991 that the 1990's marked the decade for critical decisions.
In the early 90's the scientists of the world joined in to sign a WARNING to all humanity. This is unprecedented in that scientists are often found active in their work but mostly silent to the outside world. Read this "World Scientists' Warning to the World" and realize that all the concerns expressed and more are still concerns. And then consider that Nobel Laureates and numerous other prominent scientists in their respective fields signed this document. Have you ever heard of this? If it applies today, then isn't this a most remarkable 'Sign of the Times?' Keep this statement in mind as you read and explore here and elsewhere in the WindowView.
Recent comments made by Dr. Peter Raven offer mounting concerns on global change. This indicates little progress was made in the 90's! In February 2002, Dr. Raven presented the Presidential address to the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). A look at his recent reflections on global challenges is a mere repetition of concerns voiced by Dr. Malone, the world's scientists, and many others a decade ago. And the reality is time has been lost and so too opportunities for stewardship on a planetary scale. There is even talk of missed opportunities and passing critical thresholds for turning back the negative consequences of change. Certainly extinction of species is irreversible! Again, outside of microevolution, we have no evidence for evolution back-filling species. The loss of life is essentially a one way street.
Presentations given at AAAS 2005 reveal that our entire global oceanic current, from Atlantic to Pacific to Atlantic again is in jeopardy of shutting off!
This is a SIGN POST for human activities that are beginning to set up a cascade of future consequences. Change now portends more uncertainty and further change in the decade(s) to come. This has never happened before in all of human history!
Mr. Ayers, in his book, also writes about other aspects on global change. The following (links to) brief articles illustrate various perspectives that are not always so obvious, yet are key to understanding the overall complexities to change:
[Note: these and other related 'Signs of the Times' also appear as pop-up articles on WindowView's Time Lines D and E.]
Each of these topics further characterizes why we are headed to continued decline and away from the sustainable environment that scientists hope for. But politics, global events, economic driving forces, and the human will to continue in current practices or to attain a better standard of living, all continue us on the present course. Will we ever change? Think about it! There are so many other distractions around the world, when will humanity stop to attend to the ominous implications to global change?
Is Sustainability Being Achieved?
Looking at the topics covered by Ed Ayers, in the section above, the question is: Do we have a sustainable planet? What are examples of what has occurred? Some of the related concerns are covered in a PBS telecast with Bill Moyers, entitled: "Earth on Edge." Click this link to read some of the excerpts or to download the entire broadcast transcript that reveals a number of incredible examples of ongoing problems ... changes that have or are still occurring! The only answer can be: We have yet to achieve a sustainable planet!
Other WindowView Articles Based on Still Other Source Materials:
For your additional consideration, the following descriptions on change appear as excerpts from several book chapters in the Creator's Window. Much of this is based on a scientific forum which covered a broad spectrum of change topics.
Read here from topic to topic to recognize global change is like an interlinked meshwork of relationships. So, it's not just warmer weather or fluctuations in population and poverty ... its all this and much more. Read and think about the greater number of components to change. And then consider how you barely feel this day to day. It seems horrendous to think that global change portends a threat to our survival, yet we hardly give it a thought. Yet this is what defines our planet's future!
Dr. Raven's speech includes a comment on the rate of loss of species on planet earth. Extinctions have occurred in geologic eras before. But at no time before have humans been the driving force behind a rapid loss in biodiversity. One example of this comes with the loss of vital habitats such as through deforestation.
We are all familiar with articles and the evening news stories on climate change. This is perhaps the most familiar component of this entire topic. Yet, to gage change here is simply not to look for warmer temperatures, this also includes variability in weather, changes in historic global patterns, everywhere dramatic loss of glaciers, future changes in sea level, and as yet unseen alterations in the atmosphere and seas.
A key term used by scientists today is how humanity can achieve sustainability. To define life systems we speak of the biosphere within which all life resides. Sustaining a viable biosphere is an exercise in maintaining a 'healthy' global ecology. Dr. Raven noted that at some point the global forces for decline, those we see now, may one day in the future be reversed by sustainable practices ... If in fact humanity can make the difference in time.
Again, as referenced above, the PBS special with Bill Moyers covers many of the global change issues mentioned here. We have a special page with excerpts from the show along with a link to the show's transcript (free for the downloading as PDF file). The concern here is whether we have a sustainable planet or that we are losing significant ground to change. The examples in this show are in a word: remarkable!
One of the basic life needs to be met for civilization, agricultural purposes, and even for the ecosystem at large concerns water. The quality of water is an issue when we think of pollution, but worse still is the concern for how much fresh water there really is. Sustainable practices are critical to keeping sufficient supplies to the point of even expanding supply. This is particularly evident when we think that humanity's numbers are on the increase.
We often hear about population as a concern. Certainly the recent rapid growth in humanity's numbers far surpasses all historic thresholds. This is part of the megaphenomena that we illustrated in our presentation on 'Convergence.' Human population is a key driver pushing change.
With the growing population we see humanity as a whole seeking greater creature comforts and a higher standard of material being. Countering climate change is at times countered by how individual nations seek to maintain their economic and political base. Multiply this by the concerns of all nations and one quickly see a matrix of multiple nationalistic tensions surfacing in any meeting on international conventions organized to counter global change.
Economies are driven by energy that predominantly is derived by wood, coal, gas, and oil. Wood is a minor component, but along with fossil fuels, all these common fuels drive climate change by adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Alternatives are still costly, and even if widely available tomorrow, replacing conventional fuels would take extended periods of time. Fossil fuels would still be used. Economies cannot falter without negative impacts, so the energy demands remain high ... and the demands of the less advantaged countries will only increase as their economies are established and grow.
Quality of life impacts how many of us live and survive. So, human health and diversity (native cultural resources as well as earth's natural resources) are part of the global picture. The demographics of populations in various regions of the world tell us of future population pressures. Elsewhere, if we lose cultural knowledge we lose a fragile resource and a wisdom that humans only gain by time and experience in the special remote environs on this planet.
In modern societies there are other tensions as previously defined by politics of the super powers during the Cold War. Yet this has recently given way to the interweaving of global economies. We now seem to see greater forces for centralization of markets and political forces like never before. As observed on the WindowView timeline, all this appears to head toward a central global political system. Market sectors may drive political factions into one central ring in the future. This too is a global change.
The window's view leaves us with questions that remain ... and we need to keep some sense of balance, yet the questions run headlong into numerous forces driving change. Some scientists have tried teasing out a single thread from the fabric of change to start somewhere, but how long does it take to grasp a significant portion of the weave to spin change into another direction?
It's a serious question. And the answer? No one really knows!
