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To Our WindowViewers
The following
message is one in a series of reports that we mirror here at WindowView.
Mr. Dolan's perspective
is that of a professional reporter who is located in the Middle East. For
those of us who neither live there nor understand a biblical perspective
for the timeline rooted in events related to Israel, then this report begins
to let us experience the global and biblical relevance for what comes out
of the Middle East.
From the
biblical perspective we can all pray for peace, but we are also mindful
of Scripture
that tells us at some point we will see what looks like "peace, peace," but
then a series of very serious events are to follow. The conflict of
this day is merely the tip of an iceberg ... there is so much more
to all this
that is below the water line. Keep a watch on events, learn of their
future implications, look through the window, and certainly pray for
peace!
Go to our main
news area to see a listing for all of our recent and past news editions.
Dr. Peterson
Director, WindowView.org
=================
Shalom from Jerusalem,
Below is my latest news and analysis report covering the most important
developments in Israel during December. It focuses this month on the
surprise—many say shocking—American intelligence assessment
that Iran is no longer pursuing nuclear weapons. The far reaching implications
of this bombshell assessment are examined, along with Israel’s
official response. I also look at the outcome of the short American peace
conference held outside of Washington DC in late November, and renewed
Israeli-Palestinian armed clashes in the Gaza Strip.
I plan to travel to South Africa in February to speak in the Johannesburg-Pretoria
area, the southern coastal city of George, and the Cape Town area. Details
will be sent out with my January report and posted on my website, www.ddolan.com
Another speaking tour in the United States is being planned for April
and May, with details to follow, along with an Autumn UK visit sponsored
by CFI.
I wish you all a happy, healthy and productive 2008 ahead, and if you
are able, come visit us in Israel—next year in Jerusalem!
AMERICAN BOMBSHELL SHAKES ISRAEL
By David Dolan
Israel was strongly impacted during December by two very different occurrences
in the distant United States of America, whose President is due to visit
here during January. First was the late November international peace
parlay that took place over two days in Annapolis, Maryland, just north
of Washington DC. As expected, it led to the resumption of formal Israeli-Palestinians
peace negotiations in Jerusalem during the month, which quickly proved
to be acrimonious at best. It also resulted in the Palestinian Authority
receiving international financial pledges of over seven billion US dollars.
Several Israeli politicians called for an immediate halt to the talks
following a terror attack late in the month that left two young Israeli
men dead.
The second—and undoubtedly far more important occurrence in terms
of Israel’s immediate and long term stability, and even future
survival—was the early December release of an American intelligence
assessment that maintained “with high confidence” that Iran
is no longer attempting to produce destructive nuclear weapons. The shocking
appraisal was immediately and roundly rebuffed by senior Israeli government
and security officials, including Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President
Shimon Peres.
While on the surface the two issues seemed only vaguely related, many
Israeli analysts said the prospects of a successful outcome for the White
House regenerated peace process were significantly reduced by the startling
American intelligence report. This was due to the widely held evaluation
that the extremist Iranian police state regime, entrenched for almost
three decades in Tehran, will now feel massively emboldened to rush full
throttle ahead toward becoming a nuclear power, with little prospect
for either American or Israeli military action to halt its hurtling atomic
train. This in turn will significantly strengthen the resolve of Iranian
leaders and their regional allies Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and even Al
Qaeda, to escalate their jihad war to annihilate the detested Jewish
State. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni warned in late December that
the American report may even help propel pro-Western Arab gulf countries
like Qatar and Kuwait to move into Iran’s rising strategic orbit.
BLOWN AWAY
The assessment by 16 America security agencies, including the CIA and
Army Intelligence, that Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons program,
but halted it in 2003, was drawn up in recent months and published on
December 2. Security analysts and media pundits around the globe quickly
opined that the report effectively thwarted White House and Pentagon
plans to potentially launch a major military operation to set back or
destroy Iran’s nuclear program sometime before President George
W. Bush is due to leave office in January 2009. However, it remains to
be seen whether the surprise intelligence guesstimate will also scuttle
similar plans in nearby Israel that are generally assumed to be in the
final stages of preparation.
Preliminary notes to the “National Intelligence Estimate” (NIE)
stated that it assessed both the “current status” and “likely
direction” of Iran’s nuclear program over the next ten years.
It added without elaboration that the joint evaluation was an “extensive
reexamination” of a previous NIE assessment issued in 2005 which
concluded “with high confidence that Iran is determined to develop
nuclear weapons despite international obligations and pressure.”
In further preliminary notes, the report’s authors—members
of the “National Intelligence Council” established under
Richard Nixon during the waning days of the controversial Viet Nam War
in 1973—admit that their assessment is only that: An informed guess
as to what Iran might actually be doing, or planning to do, on the nuclear
stage, as opposed to the publication of proven facts concerning this
crucial issue.
“
We use phrases such as we judge, we assess and we estimate to convey
analytical assessments and judgments. Such statements are not facts,
proofs or knowledge. These assessments and judgments generally are based
on collected information, which often is incomplete or fragmentary.”
The intriguing notes then chillingly admit that even a “high confidence” judgment,
as issued in the latest NIE report about Iran’s nuclear weapons
program and ambitions, is “not a fact or a certainty,” and
indeed “carries the risk of being wrong.” One need only note
that the exact same phrase, “high confidence,” was used in
the 2005 report stating that Iran was still carrying on with a clandestine
nuclear weapons program!
And so, due to a nonfactual and unprovable (and many say highly political)
US security intelligence “high confidence judgment” based
on admittedly “incomplete or fragmentary” information that
may well be entirely off the mark, America’s current Commander
in Chief, along with his Israeli counterpart, probably now feel that
their hands are tied against ordering any military action to prevent
the dangerous Shiite rogue state of Iran from building and using the
ultimate Weapon of Mass Destruction.
Both George Bush and Ehud Olmert are seemingly corralled despite the
provable fact that Iran is the chief sponsor of Hizbullah, a Lebanese
Muslim group that carried out massive bombardments of Israeli cities
in 2006, and a major supporter of the extremist Palestinian Hamas movement
that violently took over the Gaza Strip last June. Plus there are those
bothersome known facts that the ruling ayatollah’s and their minions
are behind the smuggling of weapons into Iraq used to kill US and British
forces stationed there; that they publicly vow to destroy Israel in the
near future; and that they openly boast they are enriching uranium in
defiance of UN demands that such potentially lethal action be immediately
stopped.
RIGHT, WRONG OR JUST CONFUSING
A careful reading of the NIE assessment reveals that America’s
government-paid sleuths remain fairly clueless as to whether or not Iran
has actually halted the clandestine nuclear weapons program which was
previously said to be in operation earlier this decade. Many critics
of the report charged it amounted to nothing more than a badly bruised
American intelligence community attempting in advance to ward off any “blame” for
possible White House-initiated military action against Iran. They note
that US spy agencies are still badly bleeding from their internationally
ridiculed contention that Saddam possessed WMDs, which helped spark a
prolonged and costly war in Iraq that has become highly unpopular at
home over the past two years.
The report actually only states “with high confidence” in
its central “Key Judgment” section that Iran “halted
its nuclear weapons program” in the autumn of 2003, while adding
in paragraph four that “We assess with moderate confidence Tehran
has not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.” In
other words, the security agencies are pretty sure that Iran’s
weapons program was stopped, but less certain that it was not subsequently
restarted, as Israeli officials insist it was.
The reports opening assessment is further weakened by a note placed in
parenthesis in paragraph three revealing that two of the participating
security agencies are only “moderately confident” that the
alleged 2003 halt meant that Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program
had been put on ice. “DOE and NIC assess with only moderate confidence
that the halt to those activities represent a halt to Iran’s entire
nuclear weapons program.” Thus at least portions of Iran’s
hidden nuclear weapons program may not have come to even a temporary
end, again as Israeli leaders insist is the actual, if quite unpleasant,
reality. Further clouding the murky picture, the report’s authors
then admit that “we do not know whether Iran currently intends
to develop nuclear weapons.”
THE RESPONSE
Israeli leaders scrambled to formulate a response to the astounding NIE
assessment. While feeling compelled to restate Israel’s firm contention
that Iran’s nuclear ambitions pose an existential threat to Israel
and to the entire region, they also wanted to protect their close military
and political alliance with the world’s current superpower.
Prime Minister Olmert—who has openly called the Iranian nuclear
threat the greatest challenge to Israel’s existence since the country
was created nearly 60 years ago—reportedly told a special session
of his inner security cabinet on December 9 that Israel “stands
by its incontrovertible evidence” that Iran is carrying on with
its clandestine nuclear weapons program. He said Israeli intelligence
agencies agreed with the American assertion that Iran halted its weapons
program in the wake of the US-led military campaign to topple Saddam
from power in early 2003, but uncovered significant evidence that it
was subsequently restarted again in 2005.
The Israeli leader pointed out that the two main elements of such a weapons
program—uranium enrichment and long range missile production—are
being openly pursued by Iran, while other less important elements are
thought to be occurring in secret. Olmert added that Iran also continues
to overtly construct a heavy water nuclear reactor in the city of Arak,
less than 200 miles southwest of Tehran, which will be capable of producing
weapons grade plutonium once it goes on line.
Just days after the PM briefed his security cabinet on the political
fallout caused by the NIE assessment; Israel’s Channel Ten reported
that Iran test fired its new Ashoura missile during the Annapolis summit
in late November. It said the missile can reach targets over 1,500 miles
away, placing all of the Middle East and parts of southern Europe in
harms way. According to Channel Ten and various Israeli and international
security sources, another Iranian missile, the Shihab 4, is also being
developed which will be capable of striking all of Europe, including
London, Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm.
RUSSIAN BEAR MOVES IN
Foreign Minister Livni and other government leaders expressed deep concern
that the US security report seriously harms Israel’s attempts to
prod the world to reign in Iran’s nuclear program. This was seemingly
demonstrated when the Kremlin announced mid month that since the assessment
had supposedly “fully confirmed” its contention that Iran’s
nuclear program “has no military component,” it was beginning
to supply nuclear fuel for the reactor Russia helped Iran build at Bushehr,
on the Persian Gulf (Iran later announced the reactor will be activated
by mid-2008).
Later in the month, government officials in Moscow announced they will
sell Iran the most sophisticated air defense shield currently available
on the world weapons market, the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system.
Saying the system is better than anything currently produced by the United
States, Israeli defense analysts warned that the top grade Russian system
will make it very difficult for the highly esteemed Israeli Air Force
to strike Iranian targets without sustaining substantial losses.
Despite their grave apprehensions, PM Olmert asked his cabinet ministers
to refrain from speaking out publicly on the touchy topic. He averred
that the White House appreciates Israel’s unease, and was demonstrating
this by sending America’s top military commander to Jerusalem—Admiral
Michael Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff—to directly
weigh Israel’s profound distress over the controversial intelligence
assessment.
Although Mullen refused to answer media questions during his whirlwind
Dec 10 visit, his spokesman maintained that US political and military
leaders “realize that Iran still poses a major threat to the region.” Captain
John Kirby added that “the Iranians have tried in the past to develop
their nuclear capabilities, they can still develop them, and they support
terror groups in the region.” While admitting that America and
Israel “do not now see eye to eye” on Iran’s nuclear
agenda, he said the two countries “remain close allies and will
continue to do so.”
DON’T UPSET UNCLE SAM!
Despite Olmert’s request that his junior ministers hold their tongues
about the devastating NIE assessment, several spoke out anyway. The most
pointed remarks came from Public Security Minister Avi Dicter, a widely
respected security expert who headed the Shabak secret service from 2000
until 2005. Speaking at a town hall meeting in the coastal city of Holon
on Dec 15, Dicter said “the American misconception” could
lead the Middle East to a new war as severe as the Yom Kippur Arab-Israeli
conflict, which nearly ended in Israel’s defeat and a nuclear showdown
between Washington and Moscow.
“
Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity
of the Iranian nuclear threat,” stated the Kadima party member
to a packed audience, adding that Israeli leaders “hope the US
will know how to correct this.” Bluntly terming the NIE report “a
misconception by the world’s leading superpower,” he stressed
that it was “not just an internal American matter” but had “serious
repercussions for Israel and many other countries.” In further
comments that probably proved particularly irksome to US officials, Dicter
stated his conviction that “Israel and other states must help in
any way to fix this miscalculation, including providing intelligence
material.”
Although the comments were thought to represent the consensus view of
Israel’s top officials, PM Olmert quickly rebuked Dicter for speaking
out so forthrightly, and asked again that all government leaders cease
making any public statements on the explosive issue, saying their words
could harm vital ties with Washington.
Israeli officials were at least somewhat heartened to hear President
Bush—due to make his first official visit to Israel on Jan 9-11—reply
to the report with continued tough talk about the overall Iranian threat
to regional stability: “The NIE doesn’t do anything to change
my opinion about the danger that Iran poses to the world. Quite the contrary.
I’m using the NIE as an opportunity to continue to rally our colleagues
and allies.”
Still, the apparent fact that the intelligence assessment has effectively
taken the President’s military option off the table has already
had an immense impact upon Israel, as noted by veteran Jerusalem Post
commentator Saul Singer: “The policy implications of the NIE cannot
be overstated, regardless of its veracity. If the military option was
ever real in the first place, it is now gone. The debate over a military
operation against Iran during the Bush administration is over.” In
summary, it now appears that it will fall upon tiny Israel alone—with
a population one tenth that of Iran’s and territory eighty times
smaller—to deal with the Iranian reality, despite probable spine
chilling consequences.
DREAM WORLD
Nearly all Israeli officials agree that a lasting peace accord between
their war weary country and the Palestinians will prove impossible to
achieve until the radical Iranian-Syrian-Hizbullah-Hamas rejectionist
train is somehow derailed. Nevertheless, the White House insisted on
hosting a high profile international peace parlay near the US capital
in late November.
Many Israeli commentators contended that the Annapolis conference, which
brought together officials from dozens of countries around the globe,
including Saudi Arabia and several Gulf Arab states, was nothing more
than a glitzy American show to divert attention away from many other
severe problems facing the Bush administration in the region (which they
point out now includes Turkish military attacks upon Kurdish forces in
northern Iraq, and the crumbling political situation in nuclear-armed
Pakistan, due east of Iran, following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto).
Facing the imminent publication of the final Winograd Commission report
focusing on his government’s failed Lebanon War performance, PM
Olmert and the beleaguered PA leader Abbas both pledged at the peace
gathering to work non stop to iron out a final peace accord during 2008.
However most Israeli and Palestinian political specialists say no such
agreement seems even remotely achievable during that time.
Indeed, the first round of resumed negotiations was nearly cancelled
mid month when the Palestinians threatened a boycott to protest Israel’s
decision to build more apartments in the southeast Jerusalem Har Homa
neighborhood. Israeli leaders replied that if their Palestinian counterparts
seriously think they will dismantle such homes as part of any final peace
deal, there is no real reason to talk.
Coalition Shas party leader and cabinet minister Eli Yishai and Israel
Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman were among dozens of Israeli politicians
who demanded an immediate halt to the negotiations after two Orthodox
Jewish men in their early 20s were viciously cornered and slain by Palestinian
gunmen on Dec 21. The Israelis, both members of elite military units,
were hiking with a female friend near a stream outside of Hebron when
Palestinian gunmen surrounded them and opened fire. Well-known sons of
prominent rabbis in nearby Kiryat Arba, the friends were shot dead after
bravely returning fire while their female acquaintance took cover. PM
Olmert said his government can take no further measures on the ground
to promote the peace process, such as dismantling additional illegal
outposts, until the Palestinians keep their commitment to halt all such
terror attacks.
The apparent absurdity of the American peace parlay was further underlined
when major fighting broke out in December between Israeli and Palestinian
forces in the Gaza Strip following additional Kassam rocket assaults
onto Israeli cities, including one that exploded just outside a packed
elementary school in Sderot. Several dozen Palestinians were killed in
the exchanges, including a prominent Islamic Jihad leader (the terror
group admits to shooting most of the over 2,000 rockets that landed inside
Israeli territory during 2007, double the number from the previous year).
Despite the heavy Palestinian rocket barrages, Israeli officials were
happy to announce that only seven Jewish civilians were killed in terror
attacks during 2007, down sharply from 17 slain in 2006. Meanwhile foreign
tourists topped two million during the year for the first time since
the Palestinian Al Aksa attrition war began in 2000, with a record number
expected in 2008 as Israel celebrates its sixtieth year of statehood.
May the new year be a blessed one for each of you as we eagerly wait
for the time when “All the earth will worship Thee, and will sing
praises to Thee; they will sing praises to Thy name” (Psalm 66:4).
DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived
and worked in Israel since 1980.
HOLY WAR FOR THE PROMISED LAND (Broadman & Holman), his latest book,
is an overview of the history of the Israel and of the bitter Arab-Israeli
conflict that rages there, plus some autobiographical details about the
author’s experiences living in the land since 1980. It especially
examines the important role that militant Islam plays in the conflict.
ISRAEL IN CRISIS: WHAT LIES AHEAD? (Baker/Revell), which examines the
political and biblical prospects for a regional attack upon Israel,
settlement in the disputed territories, and related topics, is also
available for
purchase, along with an updated edition of his popular end-time novel,
THE END OF DAYS (21st Century Press).
You may order these books at a special discount price by visiting his
web site at www.ddolan.com, or by phoning toll free 888-890-6938 in
North America, or by e mail at: resources@yourisraelconnection.org.
David’s
US speaking engagements can also be booked via this phone number and
e mail address.
DAVID DOLAN'S DVD, "FOR ZION'S SAKE" which has been broadcast
four times on nationwide television in the States, is available for purchase.
Click the title under "BOOKSTORE" for more details.
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